Who Wins When A.I. Codes: New Grads or Seasoned Developers?

July 22, 2025 • By The UC Irvine Paul Merage School of Business

New research from the Center for Digital Transformation at the UCI Paul Merage School of Business reveals how artificial intelligence impacts software developers differently, depending on their experience level.

When Italy temporarily banned ChatGPT in 2023, it created a rare, real-world experiment to understand how AI affects workplace productivity. Researchers from the Center for Digital Transformation at the UCI Paul Merage School of Business, in collaboration with Chapman University, leveraged this moment to answer a question with sweeping implications for the future of work: How does AI differentially benefit (or hurt) software developers based on their level of experience?

“AI doesn’t impact every worker the same way,” said Vijay Gurbaxani, Director of the Center for Digital Transformation at the Merage School. “Our study shows that less experienced developers gain a productivity boost in the writing of code, while the impact on experienced developers are more pronounced in their impact on team (rather than individual) productivity.”

Inside the Findings

The research team—Professors Vijay Gurbaxani and Tingting Nian, PhD student Sardar Bonabi (all of the Merage School), and Sarah Bana (Chapman University)—analyzed productivity differences among developers in Italy, France, and Portugal during the ChatGPT ban.

They discovered:

Junior developers used AI to complete individual tasks more quickly, increasing personal productivity.
Experienced developers leveraged AI to support team outcomes, such as reviewing teammates’ code and contributing across programming languages, increasing teamwide productivity.

“The impact of AI is highly context-dependent,” noted Nian. “If AI automates lower‑value tasks, it frees people for higher‑value work. If it augments human expertise, it can amplify the contributions of experienced workers to the output of their teams.”

What Does This Mean for Jobs?

While some industry leaders fear AI will replace entry-level workers, others argue that experienced workers are also at risk if they do not adapt to new tools. The Merage School’s research reframes the discussion, showing that AI’s true impact may depend on how organizations structure work and embrace change.

“Historically, when the cost of software development decreases, demand increases,” Gurbaxani explained. “The question is whether that demand will be met by hiring more developers or by empowering non-programmers to build with AI.”

The study does not predict whether AI will lead to net job losses or gains. Instead, it highlights the need for leaders to think strategically about workforce development, reskilling, and organizational design as AI tools continue to reshape work.

Research in Action at the Merage School

The Center for Digital Transformation is committed to helping leaders navigate technological change with evidence-based insights that drive responsible, forward-thinking decisions.

“AI is here, and it’s already transforming how we work,” said Gurbaxani. “At the Merage School, we’re helping leaders understand these shifts so they can position their organizations—and their people—for long-term success.”